Weekly Wire
Weekly Alibi Hey! Oscar!

By Devin D. O'Leary

MARCH 22, 1999: 

If you somehow missed the Oscars or haven't heard who the winners (and losers) are, go to the official Oscar (www.oscar.com) site. If you did catch them, read on and keep a tally of how many the author got right.

Spring is in the air. Flowers are on the verge of blooming, birds are about to be born and little gold statues are fixing to sprout up on mantelpieces all over Los Angeles. Of course, it's anyone's guess who will actually lug an Oscar to Elton John's party following this year's Academy Awards ceremony. (Those bastards from Price Waterhouse still aren't talking.) When the dust settles in the wake of 1998's sequin-draped, paparazzi-filled battle royale, will the dog-faced soldiers of Saving Private Ryan stand tall? Or will it be the dog-faced soldiers of The Thin Red Line? Perhaps Queen Elizabeth and her Shakespeare in Love castmates will kick all their fatigue-clad buttocks. Then again, Queen Elizabeth and her Elizabeth castmates could pull an upset out of their corsets. No one knows for sure. Still, with a little number crunching, we can at least see how the Oscar odds are stacked.

What follows is a complete list of every Academy Award category. We've included the winning odds for the "Big Three" categories as calculated by British bookies, English Sports Betting. In addition, we've added the awards that have already been handed out to each nominee as well as our own "Weekly Alibi pick" in Sunday's top nine horse races. Previous accolades are no guarantee of Oscar night success--but the odds do seem to be stacked in some folks' favors.



1. BEST PICTURE:

Elizabeth 18/1

Life Is Beautiful 10/1

Saving Private Ryan 1/6 (BFCA, GG, LAFCC, NYFCC, OFCS, OMPA, PGA)

Shakespeare in Love 3/1 (GG, SAG)

The Thin Red Line 16/1



2. ACTOR:

Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful 9/1 (SAG)

Tom Hanks, Saving Private Ryan 7/5

Ian McKellen, Gods and Monsters 9/4 (BFCA, LAFCC, NBR, OMPA, OFCS)

Nick Nolte, Affliction 6/4 (NSFC, NYFCC)

Edward Norton, American History X 15/1



3. ACTRESS:

Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth 4/7 (BFCA, GG, OFCS, OMPA)

Fernanda Montenegro, Central Station 25/1

Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love 13/10 (GG, SAG)

Meryl Streep, One True Thing 11/1

Emily Watson, Hilary and Jackie 16/1



4. SUPPORTING ACTOR:

James Coburn, Affliction

Robert Duvall, A Civil Action (SAG)

Ed Harris, The Truman Show (GG, NBR)

Geoffrey Rush, Shakespeare in Love

Billy Bob Thornton, A Simple Plan (BFCA, OFCS, OMPA, LAFCC)



5. SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Kathy Bates, Primary Colors (BFCA, OMPA, SAG)

Brenda Blethyn, Little Voice

Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love (NSFC)

Rachel Griffiths, Hilary and Jackie

Lynn Redgrave, Gods and Monsters (GG)



6. DIRECTOR:

Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful

Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan (BFCA, DGA, GG, LAFCC, OMPA, OFCS)

John Madden, Shakespeare in Love

Terrence Malick, The Thin Red Line (NYFCC)

Peter Weir, The Truman Show



7. FOREIGN FILM:

Central Station, Brazil (GG, NBR)

Children of Heaven, Iran

The Grandfather, Spain

Life Is Beautiful, Italy (BFCA, OFCS, OMPA)

Tango, Argentina



8. ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Warren Beatty and Jeremy Pikser, Bulworth (LAFCC)

Vincenzo Cerami and Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful

Robert Rodat, Saving Private Ryan

Marc Norman and Tom Stoppard, Shakespeare in Love (BFCA, GG, NYFCC, OMPA, WGA)

Andrew Niccol, The Truman Show (OFCS)



9. ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Bill Condon, Gods and Monsters

Scott Frank, Out of Sight (NSFC, OFCS, OMPA, WGA)

Elaine May, Primary Colors

Scott B. Smith, A Simple Plan (BFCA)

Terrence Malick, The Thin Red Line



10. ART DIRECTION: Elizabeth, Pleasantville, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, What Dreams May Come



11. CINEMATOGRAPHY: A Civil Action, Elizabeth, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, The Thin Red Line



12. SOUND: Armageddon, The Mask of Zorro, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, The Thin Red Line



13. SOUND EFFECTS EDITING: Armageddon, The Mask of Zorro, Saving Private Ryan



14. ORIGINAL MUSICAL OR COMEDY SCORE: A Bug's Life, Mulan, Patch Adams, The Prince of Egypt, Shakespeare in Love



15. ORIGINAL DRAMATIC SCORE: Elizabeth, Life Is Beautiful, Pleasantville, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line



16. ORIGINAL SONG: "I Don't Want to Miss a Thing" from Armageddon; "The Prayer" from Quest for Camelot; "A Soft Place to Fall" from The Horse Whisperer; "That'll Do" from Babe: Pig in the City; "When You Believe" from The Prince of Egypt



17. COSTUME: Beloved, Elizabeth, Pleasantville, Shakespeare in Love, Velvet Goldmine



18. DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Dancemaker, The Farm: Angola, U.S.A., The Last Days, Lenny Bruce: Swear to Tell the Truth, Regret to Inform



19. DOCUMENTARY (short subject): "The Personals: Improvisations on Romance in the Golden Years," "A Place in the Land," "Sunrise Over Tiananmen Square"



20. FILM EDITING: Life Is Beautiful, Out of Sight, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, The Thin Red Line



21. MAKEUP: Elizabeth, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love



22. ANIMATED SHORT FILM: "Bunny," "The Canterbury Tales," "Jolly Roger," "More," "When Life Departs"



23. LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM: "Culture," "Election Night (Valgaften)," "Holiday Romance," "La Carte Postale (The Postcard)," "Victor"



24. VISUAL EFFECTS: Armageddon, Mighty Joe Young, What Dreams May Come



AWARD KEY: Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA), Directors Guild of America (DGA), Golden Globe Awards (GG), Los Angeles Film Critics Circle (LAFCC), National Board of Review (NBR), National Society of Film Critics (NSFC), New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC), Online Film Critics Circle (OFCS), Online Motion Picture Academy (OMPA), Producers Guil of America (PGA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Writers Guild of America (WGA)


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